Image on top: Getty Images/Alamy Stock Photo

In a press release by the Norwegian Nobel Committee last week, it was known that 244 people and 94 organizations (a total of 338) have been nominated for the Nobel Peace Prize of 2025. On Friday October 10, the Nobel Peace Prize laureate(s) will be announced.

Among the 338 names we find President Donal Trump, who has been nominated by various people for different reasons. See e.g. this nomination by congresswoman Claudia Tenney (NY-24) that highlights Trumps “groundbreaking efforts to foster peace and cooperation between Israel, Bahrain, Morocco, Sudan, and the United Arab Emirates through the Abraham Accords“.

In a world where flattery works when meeting the US President, we have been witnessing several examples on how foreign leaders choose to approach President Trump. E.g. when the UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer recently met with Donald Trump in Washington, he brought “an unprecedented invitation to the US President from Britain’s King Charles III“.

So may we risk that Norway decides to “pull a flattery stunt” by simply awarding the Nobel Peace Prize to the sitting US President for 2025?

The simple answer is no. The 5 members of the Norwegian Nobel Committee work independently, and I am 100 % sure they will never allow the integrity of the Nobel institute to be destroyed by some flattery campaign. That became apparent for everyone to see in 2010 when the Nobel Peace Prize was awarded the Chinese dissident Liu Xiaobo for his long fight for key human rights in China. This award was met with condemnation by China, that punished Norway by shutting down all the trade between the two countries for many years. Despite the fact that it is not the Norwegian government that awards the Nobel Peace Prize, but rather an independent institution known as “The Norwegian Nobel Institute“. In any case, the relationship between Norway and China was not normalized before the end of 2016. See e.g. this article in New York Times entitled: “Norway and China Restore Ties, 6 years After Nobel Prize Dispute“.

The way I see it, President Trump will never be awarded the Nobel Peace Prize. At least not based upon his deeds so far, and definitely not for flattery reasons. But of course, if the man – in the months to come – suddenly decides to take on Vladimir Putin and manages to force a Russian retreat from Ukraine, including to secure a Peace agreement with security forces deployed on Ukrainian land, that would probably force the Norwegian Nobel Committee to look at his candidacy one more time. But in the absence of such an unthinkable scenario, I find it impossible that President Trump will be able to achieve what President Obama managed in 2009. Partly because President Trump is basically a horrible person without any empathy, and also because his many crazy actions will never be applauded by the members of the Nobel Committee. This is definitely not a MAGA committee, that’s for sure. Let’s look at the Nobel Committee in more detail.

The Norwegian Nobel Committee consists of 5 members, each selected by the Norwegian Parliament for a 6-year period. In 2025, this includes Chair Jørgen Watne Frydnes, Vice chair Asle Toje, Anne Enger, Kristin Clemet and Gry Larsen.

The Norwegian Nobel Committee, 2024. From left: Anne Enger, Olav Njølstad (secretary), Gry Larsen, Kristin Clemet, Asle Toje (vice chair) og Jørgen Watne Frydnes (chair). © Nobel Prize Outreach. Photo: Agnete Brun.

In addition to being Chair of the Nobel Committee, Jørgen Watne Frydnes has been the Secretary General of the Norwegian department of Pen International since 2023. On their website the text states what this organization is all about: “Freedom of expression is deteriorating worldwide giving way to a rise in hate speech and oppressive legislation which threatens the lives and wellbeing of all kinds of writers, inc. poets, novelists, and journalists, as well as publishers. Meanwhile, writers, particularly women and those from marginalised communities, still need equal access and representation within the literary and civic spaces. Become a Friend of PEN International today and help us continue our vital work to defend free expression and promote literature worldwide.” Considering how President Trump and his republican friends shut down journalists in the US (e.g. AP for the nonsensical “Gulf of America” spectacle) as well as all the literature/books being banned, not to mention all the hate speeches that are welcomed on X, I think it would be fair to conclude that Mr Frydnes and President Trump have different perspectives on life. Also, Jørgen Watne Frydnes was previously project leader for a group working to rebuild Utøya, after the terrible terrorattacks in 2011 by a Norwegian rightwing-nut-extremist. Also he has been working almost 10 years for the organization “Doctors Without Borders“, and based on this experience I doubt Mr Frydnes is very impressed by the way the Trump-administration has crushed USAID in recent months. The same perspective is probably true for Gry Larsen, that used to be the President for the aid organization Care Norway. Gry Larsen is a former politican for the Norwegian Labour Party, whose youth politicans were killed in 2011 during the terror event. Kristin Clemet used to be a politican for the Norwegian Conservative Party, that historically have had close relations with the republican Party in the US. But there is no way she would have applauded Trumps current crazy actions in the US, being the true warrior for liberal democracy as she is. Anne Enger used to be a leader of the Centre Party, that played a major role when Norway decided to not enter EU in the 1990’s. She hasn’t been much in the public eye in recent years, but during her time as a Centre Party leader, she tried to push her policies towards the political left.

In my mind, the four members of the Nobel Committee mentioned above – Jørgen Watne Frydnes, Gry Larsen, Kristin Clemet and Anne Enger, are politically million of miles away from the MAGA movement, and I cannot picture a scenario where they would ever support a Nobel Peace Prize for President Trump. The only exception may be Asle Toje, the Vice Chair and 5th member of the Committee, as he has expressed some world views that slightly remind me of Trump. But nevertheless, with 1 against 4, that means President Trump will never win the Prize (with the only exception that he actually does something extraordinary to bring peace to the world). In any case, I am comfortable stating here at the end that the likelyhood for the Norwegian Nobel Peace Prize Committee to award President Trump the prize may be compared with the likelyhood of the GOP raising taxes on rich guys, in order to help the poor.